The best Shut the Box strategy in one rule
The best Shut the Box strategy you can remember at the table is to shut the fewest tiles possible, and when two choices use the same number of tiles, take the one with the higher tile. For a roll of 9 that means shutting the 9 on its own, not the 4 and 5. For a roll of 10 it means the 9 and 1, not the 6 and 4.
Here is how that rule compares with perfect play and with a common bad habit, over every possible game with nine tiles:
| How you choose | Average score | Box shut | Picks the best move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perfect play | 11.0 | 9.7% | always |
| Fewest tiles, highest first | 11.2 | 9.6% | 95% of the time |
| Lowest tiles first | 24.2 | 1.1% | 31% of the time |
Which tiles should you shut first?
Shut the high tiles first in Shut the Box, because the 7, 8 and 9 are the hardest tiles to get rid of later. A 9 needs a roll of exactly 9, or a bigger total that includes it, and the chance of rolling 9 or more with two dice is only 10 in 36. The small tiles are the opposite: the 1, 2 and 3 fit into almost any total, so keep them for the end.
On your first roll, the best move is always to shut the single tile that matches your roll, from 2 up to 9. For 10, 11 and 12, shut the 9 together with the 1, 2 or 3. The Shut the Box best moves page has the full chart and a move helper.
Why shutting fewer tiles helps
Shutting fewer tiles helps because every tile you keep is a tile that can still be used later. Keeping a spread of small and middle tiles open means more of the next rolls will fit. If you spend three small tiles on one roll, you lose the flexibility you need when only awkward totals are left.
When should you roll one die?
Roll one die when the tiles still open add up to 6 or less, because two dice usually roll more than 6, which those tiles cannot match. When the open tiles add up to 8 or more, roll two dice. At exactly 7, roll one die only if the open tiles are the 1, 2 and 4; otherwise roll two. You may only roll one die once the 7, 8 and 9 are all shut.
The mistake that more than doubles your score
A costly Shut the Box mistake is shutting the small tiles first. It feels safe to use up the 1, 2 and 3, but it leaves the big tiles standing with nothing small to combine them with. Players who always shut the lowest tiles first average 24.2 points and shut the box only about 1 game in 90, compared with 11.0 and about 1 in 10 with perfect play.
How often can you win Shut the Box?
Even with perfect play, you shut the box in only about 1 game in 10 with nine tiles and the one-die rule. Playing for the lowest score shuts it in 9.7% of games; playing only to shut the box raises that to 9.8%, the best chance there is. The dice decide most games, so a good strategy shows over many games rather than one. The Shut the Box odds page has the figures for 9, 10 and 12 numbers, and the Shut the Box scoring page shows what counts as a good score.
Can you win Shut the Box every time?
No, nobody can win Shut the Box every time. Even perfect play fails to shut the box in about 9 games out of 10, because sometimes no group of open tiles matches the next roll, whatever you chose before. A good strategy raises your chances; it cannot remove the luck.
Practise with the daily game
Our daily game is a good way to practise Shut the Box strategy. Everyone gets the same dice, and when you finish you can see what our Super Intelligence scored on those dice, knowing every roll in advance. Practice games give you new dice whenever you like.